The Opta supercomputer was used to generate early pre-tournament predictions ahead of kick-off on 11 June, with the data pointing to a tightly packed race at the top.
According to the simulations, Spain are the team to beat, emerging as the most likely champions after 10,000 tournament runs. France sit close behind, while England and Argentina are also firmly in contention.
READ: Full 2026 FIFA World Cup fixtures revealed
The expanded format, which features 48 nations for the first time in World Cup history, has opened the door to more unpredictability than ever before, but the model still identifies a clear group of elite contenders.
Spain lead the way with the highest probability of winning the tournament, powered by a generation of technical brilliance and tournament consistency. France remain perennial finalists and are expected to push them close once again.
England’s chances reflect their growing depth and recent tournament performances, while Argentina remain dangerous as reigning world champions heading into another major cycle.
Behind the top four, traditional powerhouses such as Portugal and Brazil are also in the mix, but the data suggests they sit just outside the very top tier of favourites.
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With the tournament set to stretch across the United States, Mexico and Canada, and a record 104 matches on the schedule, the Opta model highlights just how open the competition has become.
One thing is certain: the race for the 2026 World Cup is set to be one of the most unpredictable in history.
Who Will Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Forty-eight teams will battle it out for glory in North America, but who will win the tournament?
We asked the Opta supercomputer for its predictions before the tournament kicks off on 11 June. pic.twitter.com/nPyiTqnKpT
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 1, 2026
Photo: Gallo Images/Foto24/Felix Dlangamandla
