Bayern Munich’s problems deeper than the Kane curse

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Bayern Munich’s season will go down as a catastrophic failure when they inevitably fail to win silverware for the first time in 12 years.  The German champions broke the bank to sign superstar Harry Kane for £100m but his arrival has coincided with the Bavarians worst season in over a decade.  The failures of this season have been attributed to the ‘Harry Kane curse’ but it would be disingenuous to place the blame on the trophyless striker.

Bayern have won 11 Bundesliga titles in a row with Borussia Dortmund’s second title under Jurgen Klopp in the 2011/12 season the last time they were runners-up.  Thomas Tuchel will leave the club at the end of the season with his side currently out of all domestic cup competitions, almost stumbling to Lazio in the Champions League and 10 points behind Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen.  Barring a miraculous recovery, Bayern will not win a trophy this season.

Harry Kane’s adjustment to German football has been outstanding.  The English striker has scored 33 goals and provided eight assists in 33 appearances in all competitions in his debut campaign.  Despite the change of scenery and the poor performances of his team mates, Kane is still providing at a world class rate and is set to win the Bundesliga golden boot.  Kane is the only player in Bayern’s squad to have hit double digits for goals scored in all competitions, he is also responsible for more than half of his sides goals this season.  It is worrying to think where Bayern would be without him.

If we look at the stats of Bayern for the 2022/23 season and the current 2023/24 campaign, the underlying numbers show that there are deeper problems at play than the mere addition of Harry Kane and his supposed curse.  If anything, without Kane the defending Bundesliga champions would be in a more dire position.  Last season their top scorers were Serge Gnabry and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting with 17 goals in all competitions.  The squad was also providing more with five players getting double digits for goals scored.

The 2022/23 season was their lowest points tally since 2010/11, only managing to win the Bundesliga on goal difference after Borussia Dortmund capitulated on the last day of the season.  They conceded on average 1.12 goals per game and scored 2.71 per game while their points per game was 2.09.  In comparison, this season they have slightly improved.  Bayern are currently scoring at the same rate as last season, 2.71 goals per game and are conceding slightly more at 1.17 goals per game.  The metric that is most telling is that Bayern are winning 2.25 points per game this season.  An impressive rate.  The issue is not Harry Kane, it is that his team-mates are not sharing the burden and Bayer Leverkusen are simply sensational.

The main characteristic that separated Bayern from its Bundesliga competitors other than their financial strength was their consistency at all levels throughout the organization.  The board had been in control for a number of years but saw huge changes on the last day of the 2022/23 season.  The squads core group of players were stable with minor changes to the starting XI made to maintain success.  Since Pep Guardiola left the club in 2016, Bayern have had six different managers and have still failed to adequately replace stars like Robert Lewandowski, David Alaba and Thiago Alcantara.

The downfall of Germany’s greatest Bundesliga team can be traced back to their treble winning campaign in the 2019/20 season.  There has been constant uncertainty within the organization with regular managerial changes, a poor recruitment strategy that has failed to adequately replace key squad members and the absence of a clear, direct and motivated board to continue the clubs success.  These are ultimately the contributors to Bayern’s current misery, not the arrival of Harry Kane.

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Dylan Johnson