A Goldman Sachs model gives Spain a 26 percent chance of lifting the trophy in North America this summer – the highest probability of any nation heading into the tournament.
France are second on 19 percent, reigning champions Argentina third on 14 percent, Brazil fourth on 8 percent and England fifth on just 5 percent.
The model is built on Elo ratings – a performance-ranking system originally developed for chess and adapted for football – combined with attacking talent, recent momentum, tournament mentality and geography.
Nearly 20,000 international matches since 1978 were simulated to generate the probabilities, which will be updated after each match day throughout the tournament.
Spain’s case is compelling. They hold the highest Elo ranking in world football, arrive on the back of their Euro 2024 triumph and boast one of the most technically gifted squads at the tournament.
A win in North America would give them a second World Cup title – 16 years after their historic triumph on South African soil in 2010.
Argentina’s odds have been reduced by what Goldman calls the “winner’s slump” – the documented tendency of defending World Cup champions to underperform at the following tournament. Only Brazil in 1958 and 1962 have retained the title in the modern era.
France’s 19 percent probability is partly hurt by the likelihood of facing Spain in the semi-finals – a matchup the model views as a significant obstacle for Didier Deschamps’ side.
England’s 5 percent reflects a history of tournament underperformance and a slightly unfavourable draw – a lower probability than betting markets currently assign them.
“Spain is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition,” Goldman Sachs said.
Spain. France. Argentina. Brazil. The usual suspects lead the way. The 2026 World Cup begins on 11 June.
Photo: David Ramirez/Soccrates/Getty Images
