Statistical indicators and historical trends point to a difficult assignment for Everton at Villa Park, where Aston Villa’s sustained form under Unai Emery contrasts sharply with the Toffees’ attacking inefficiencies.
When Aston Villa travelled to Hill Dickinson Stadium in September, the contrast between the two sides was far less pronounced. Everton entered the fixture on the back of consecutive league wins, while Villa were still searching for their first Premier League goal of the season.
The match ended goalless, though the underlying numbers favoured Everton, who registered 20 shots and generated 2.08 expected goals (xG) compared to Villa’s 0.54. Despite that dominance, only two of Everton’s attempts tested the goalkeeper, highlighting an attacking issue that has persisted.
Villa’s trajectory shifted sharply in the weeks that followed. After scoring their first league goal in a 1–1 draw with Sunderland, Unai Emery’s side embarked on a sustained run of results.
Since that point, Villa have won 13 Premier League matches, more than any other team in the same period. They have scored 32 goals, a total surpassed only by Manchester City’s 36, despite producing a comparatively modest 21.9 xG. Defensively, Villa have also been efficient, with only four teams conceding fewer than their 19 goals during that stretch.
Everton’s progression has been less pronounced. Goals have remained difficult to come by, and their inability to convert chances, as seen in the September meeting, continues to shape their campaign. Ahead of Sunday’s fixture, the two clubs are separated by nine league positions and 14 points, reflecting the divergence in consistency and output.
Opta’s pre-match projections underline that gap. The supercomputer assigns Aston Villa a 64.4% probability of victory, the second-highest win likelihood across the matchday, behind only Liverpool.
Everton are given a 16.6% chance of claiming all three points, while a draw accounts for the remaining 19% of simulations.
Sunday’s encounter will mark the 216th league meeting between the sides, making it the most frequently played fixture in English top-flight history.
Photo: Molly Darlington/Copa/Getty Images
