The Ballon d’Or will be awarded in Paris on September 22, with data and criteria pointing to Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Paris Saint-Germain’s Ousmane Dembélé as frontrunners, though Kylian Mbappé and Viktor Gyökeres also emerge as leading contenders.

The assessment of Ballon d’Or prospects is based entirely on the numbers from the 2024/25 campaign. Strikers, wingers, and central midfielders alone are compared to determine which players delivered the strongest performances, independent of personal or team achievements.

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Midfielders

PSG’s João Neves posted the strongest numbers in his category, excelling in duels (95.7%), forward passing (94.3%) and key passes (95.0%). However, with PSG’s league and Champions League titles largely credited to attacking stars, Neves’ influence may be seen as less decisive compared to forwards and wingers in contention.

– Best midfield candidate: João Neves.

Strikers

Sporting CP’s Viktor Gyökeres ranked highest among centre-forwards, leading in non-penalty goals (98.4), xG (97.6), touches in the box (99.6) and duels won (98.8). His numbers outshine Manchester City’s Erling Haaland and Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski, while Harry Kane remains consistent for Bayern.

Yet Sporting’s lack of major continental success reduces Gyökeres’ standing against rivals who delivered at higher levels.

– Best striker candidate: Viktor Gyökeres, but impact limited by team achievements.

Wingers

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah combined decisive numbers with team success. He scored at elite rates (96.6 NPG), added creativity (97.5 assists, 98.2 key passes) and was central in Liverpool’s Premier League title run. By combining individual dominance with decisive team achievements, Salah aligns strongly with the Ballon d’Or criteria.

PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé, meanwhile, delivered near-perfect creative and dribbling metrics while lifting both Ligue 1 and the UEFA Champions League, giving him a strong claim based on team achievements.

Vinícius Júnior and Lamine Yamal provided high attacking output for Real Madrid and Barcelona respectively, but both fell short of league and continental triumphs last season.

– Best winger candidate: Mohamed Salah, with Dembélé in contention through Champions League success.

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Cross-Positional Comparison

Individual performance: Salah and Mbappé show the most consistent elite outputs, Gyökeres dominates statistically, and Dembélé excels creatively.

Team achievements: Salah won the Premier League with Liverpool; Dembélé lifted both Ligue 1 and the Champions League with PSG; Mbappé also played a central role in Madrid’s strong campaign.

Class/fair play: No major controversies reported for any of the top contenders, leaving individual and team performance as the deciding factors.

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Top 5 Ballon d’Or Candidates (Considering Criteria + Data)

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) – Elite scoring and creativity, decisive in Liverpool’s Premier League triumph.

Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) – Outstanding creative numbers and part of Ligue 1 and Champions League-winning PSG side.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) – Exceptional attacking profile and central to Madrid’s campaign, though fell short of league and European honours.

Viktor Gyökeres (Sporting CP) – Statistically dominant but with fewer collective achievements compared to rivals.

João Neves (PSG) – The top midfielder statistically, though overshadowed by attacking teammates in PSG’s title wins.

Photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images/Getty Images For The Premier League