Paraguay’s stunning penalty shootout victory over Germany in the Round of 32 has entered the history books as the fourth biggest upset in World Cup knockout stage history, according to FIFA ranking differential since records began in 1994.
The biggest knockout upsets
With a ranking gap of 31 places between the nations, Paraguay’s win sits just behind the top three – all of which involved either Spain or South Korea.
Russia’s elimination of Spain in 2018 remains the biggest knockout upset with a 60-place gap, followed by South Korea’s wins over Italy and Spain at the 2002 World Cup.
Germany’s loss to Bulgaria in 1994 rounds out the top five with a 28-place differential.
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Paraguay knocking out Germany was the fourth-biggest upset in World Cup knockout history, according to FIFA ranking differential (since its introduction in 1994). pic.twitter.com/LX4jaXbnx5
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 1, 2026
Bafana lead the all-time list
When the scope expands beyond knockout matches to include all games, South Africa sit at the very top.
Bafana Bafana’s 2-1 win over France at the 2010 World Cup group stage, with a FIFA ranking gap of 74 places, stands as the biggest upset by differential in World Cup history. France were ranked ninth in the world at the time, South Africa 83rd.
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It is a piece of history that often goes unmentioned but deserves its place alongside Saudi Arabia stunning Argentina in 2022, South Korea beating Germany in 2018 and Ghana’s wins over the United States and Czechia in 2006.
Paraguay’s latest giant-killing act only adds to a long list of moments that prove football’s greatest stage respects no favourites.
Photo: Reuters/Winslow Townson
