Liverpool have emerged as the frontrunners to win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League, according to Opta’s supercomputer, with Arne Slot’s side given a 20.4% chance of lifting the trophy.
Arsenal (16.0%) and defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (12.1%) follow closely behind, setting up a competitive campaign featuring three of Europe’s most consistent contenders.
Liverpool have been identified as the early favourites to win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League, according to the latest Opta supercomputer projections. Despite exiting last season’s competition in the round of 16, Arne Slot’s side hold a 20.4% chance of lifting the trophy — the highest among all contenders.
In the 2024–25 campaign, Liverpool topped the league phase standings, securing seven wins from eight matches and collecting a competition-best 21 points. Their performances at Anfield were particularly dominant, winning all four home games by an aggregate score of 10–1, including a 2–0 victory over reigning champions Real Madrid. Their only setback came in a 3–2 defeat at PSV, where a rotated squad featured.
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According to the Opta model, Liverpool have a 79.5% probability of finishing inside the top eight, which would automatically qualify them for the knockout rounds. They are also predicted to finish first in the 36-team table in 23.9% of simulations, and inside the top four in nearly 59% of them.
Arsenal, who reached the semi-finals last season before losing 3–1 on aggregate to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain, rank as the second favourites (16.0%). The Gunners are yet to win Europe’s premier club competition despite 211 appearances, the most by any team without a title.
Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have built one of the competition’s most disciplined defences, conceding just 18 goals in 24 Champions League matches — an average of 0.75 per game. Only four clubs managed by Capello, Van Gaal, Rijkaard, or Valverde have recorded better defensive averages in Champions League history (minimum 20 games).
PSG, the reigning champions, are given a 12.1% chance of defending their crown. The French champions became the first from Ligue 1 to win the Champions League in 2024–25 and are aiming to become the first French side to claim back-to-back titles.
However, their path appears more challenging. Based on the Opta Power Rankings, PSG face one of the most difficult sets of league-phase fixtures, with only Bayern Munich and PSV drawing stronger average opposition (92.4 rating). That mirrors their previous campaign, when they advanced from the league phase despite facing the toughest opposition on paper, ultimately winning the title.
With Liverpool seeking redemption, Arsenal chasing history, and PSG defending their crown, the 2025–26 Champions League is shaping up as one of the most evenly balanced campaigns in recent memory.
Photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images
